What Does Raila Odinga Really Want?

A new political wrangle has emerged in Kenya between the government and the opposition after the country's opposition leader Raila Odinga said that he does not recognize the leadership of President William Ruto and his government five months after the conclusion of the general election in the country.

Raila Odinga has instead called on President William Ruto and his government to step down from power, claiming that they were not elected legally in the elections that ended on August 9, 2022.

According to the results of the 2022 election, William Ruto emerged as the winner after defeating Raila Odinga by more than 200,000 votes. However, Raila challenged the result in the high court which after its hearings declared President William Ruto as the legally elected president.

However, Raila says that he has evidence from a dedicated IEBC official that the Electoral Commission officials rigged the results to give victory to his rival William Ruto.

According to the investigation report which is under the opposition leaders only, Raila Odinga is alleged to have defeated President William Ruto by more than two million votes in the last election.

However, responding to Raila Odinga's claims, President William Ruto was quoted as saying that the opposition leader was trying to pressure his government to enter into an agreement to work with him known as a handshake.

The president swore that he would not accept being deceived and canceled any agreement with Mr. Odinga.

"I want to tell them to forget the handshake, and don't tell us you don't want a handshake. We know you and we can see you,'' Dr Ruto said when he addressed mourners in Kiambu county during the funeral service of Pauline Nyokabi, the sister of Commerce Minister Moses Kuria

"All these protests they are doing are not about the people, they are doing it about their selfishness, their families and their businesses, Ruto was quoted as saying.

"My friend, isn't it time to change tactics?" he said. "There is no way you will outsmart me. Forget about handshakes.”

The country's leader as well, has shown the will to face Raila Odinga by attracting his people in the Azimio Union to cooperate with them in his government.

Raila: 'I don't want a handshake with Ruto'

But responding to President William Ruto in a meeting filled with thousands of his supporters at Jacaranda Stadium in Nairobi, Raila said that he did not need to make any agreement with Mr. William Ruto and that William Ruto should have left office.

Raila reiterated the claims he made for the first time on January 23 when he arrived in Kenya from South Africa.

He called on the government of Kenya Kwanza to resign immediately and urged his supporters to reject the UDA administration and oppose the punitive tax imposed by that administration, likening President William Ruto to Zacchaeus of the Bible who was a tax collector.

"Mr. Ruto has now become the Zakayo who was taxing in the Bible. We have told Kenyans to refuse to pay taxes to Mr. Zakayo''.

He also denounced that the administration has changed government officials in important public organizations and instead given those positions to UDA's henchmen, thus paving the way for the looting of public resources that has never been witnessed.

These remarks were also supported by Raila Odinga's fellow candidate, Martha Karua in the 2022 election who asked President Ruto to leave office immediately adding: "We are not afraid we were born one day and we will leave the world one day".

Raila, who has been seen playing his 2017 card, which led to a handshake between him and former President Uhuru Kenyatta in 2018, however insisted that he does not want any cooperation with what he claims is an 'Illegal Presidency.'

"They say that we like demonstrations and that we want to shake hands, I say here today, I don't want anything to do with shaking hands," he said.

What exactly does Raila want?

Political Affairs analyst David Burare

According to this analyst, Raila's history in previous governments shows that he has been fighting for an agreement to include him in the famous 'handshake' government.

"Despite the fact that he does not want to accept the truth, Raila has been fighting for a handshake, why is he calling the international community, he is doing it so that it does not appear that he is the one who wants it", said Mr. Burare.

Mr. Burare says that Raila feels that he is not finished politically and that he still has an agenda to lead this nation which he has not fulfilled, therefore he does not want to lose his supporters across the country.

"Raila does not want to lose his support in the country, so he has returned to strengthen himself so that he can go to the 2027 elections, I assure you that Raila will run for the Presidency in 2027", added the analyst.

He has said that another reason that has made Raila start enmity with William Ruto's government is the hostility between former president Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto. According to the analyst, Uhuru believes that President William Ruto is continuing a war of revenge against him, so he has been supporting Raila Odinga because he believes that he is the only one who has the power to remove William Ruto from power.

"Every time he finishes his meetings, Raila has always been quoted as saying that Ruto's government should get rid of Uhuru Kenyatta. This is proof that Uhuru may be the sponsor of those meetings'', he added.

Also, this analyst says that Raila has been heard saying that he cannot retire and does not go anywhere in his meetings

How Raila Odinga cooperated with previous governments

After Raila contested in the 1997 general election and was defeated by former president Moi, on 18 March 2002 he led a coalition between his NDP party and the Kenya African National Union (KANU) led by President Daniel arap Moi.

According to sources, the two parties joined forces in an effort to increase their chances of winning the 2002 general election as "the NDP was the second largest opposition party supported by Odinga's Luo ethnic voters from western Kenya".

However, in July 2002 President Moi did not endorse Raila Odinga as KANU's presidential candidate, which was reportedly one of the conditions of the KANU-NDP alliance, but instead endorsed Uhuru Kenyatta.

Due to this situation, Raila Odinga and the former leaders of NDP along with some leaders of KANU led the rebellion and joined the group of "big opposition coalition" called National Rainbow Coalition (NRC).

They defeated Uhuru Kenyatta in the election where Mwai Kibaki became president after being approved by Raila through 'Kibaki Tosha'.

However, he disagreed with President Kibaki and was fired as a Minister in the run-up to the 2007 general election after Kibaki broke several important promises, including a memorandum of understanding with Odinga.

In 2007, he competed against President Kibaki in an election that had a big controversy after Kibaki was declared the winner. Raila led protests across the country against the results.

The international community responded quickly. Then the US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer traveled to Nairobi, followed by the Minister of Foreign Affairs Condoleezza Rice, to push the two sides to reach an agreement through the mediator Koffi Annan, where Raila was named Prime Minister and shared Government on a 50-50 basis with President Kibaki.

2017: He ran for the presidency for the fourth time on the NASA ticket and was defeated by Uhuru Kenyatta

Odinga succeeded in challenging Uhuru's victory in court, the victory was declared invalid and he had to repeat the election, Odinga withdrew from the re-election where Uhuru was declared President.

Raila swore himself in as the "people's president" and called for protests across the country against the Government.

2018: Following the pressure of Raila Odnga's protests, Uhuru decided to reconcile the opposing sides by shaking hands in front of millions of Kenyans and working as President Uhuru's adviser on many government issues.