How China-Russia relations cooled during the war in Ukraine Nearly a year after Russia began its war against Ukraine, there are signs that C...

How China-Russia relations cooled during the war in Ukraine

Nearly a year after Russia began its war against Ukraine, there are signs that China may be reconsidering the concept of "unlimited friendship" that was introduced days before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Alarmed by Russia's failure in Ukraine and faced with its own problems, Beijing is now trying to mitigate the impact of Russia's actions by reshaping its relations with the West.

Just 20 days before Russia launched a full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine, in early February last year, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, in his historic speech, spoke about "unlimited friendship" and "the absence of restricted areas in cooperation".

The Financial Times, a leading newspaper in the UK, reports that its sources have confirmed that the two leaders Xi and Putin discussed Ukraine, and Mr Putin "did not indicate that he would not take any action" if Russia was attacked.

But it is obvious that he has failed to mention any plans for a full invasion of President Xi.

Bejing attention

While we are not sure that Xi was unaware of Russia's invasion plans, the fact that China abstained from voting to condemn Moscow's actions in March, was careful to take sides in the Ukraine conflict from the beginning.

Early when the war started - some people in China showed enthusiasm for the actions of the Russian army and many shared with the public a video of the translated speech of President Putin announcing a "special military operation", the words used by the Moscow regime to mean war.

But officially, Beijing used to have a strategy of not showing its position in the Ukraine conflict.

On the other hand, the Chinese leadership blamed the US government in Washington for starting the conflict, saying it was caused by the expansion of Nato in Europe.

On the other hand, Beijing has been in no rush to provide meaningful support to the Russian government.

Another famous Western newspaper, Washington Post, claims that Russia has been repeatedly asking China for both financial and technological support.

Reduce the impact

The only time the leaders of the two countries have ever met since the beginning of the war was in September, at an international conference held in the Uzbek city of Samarkand.

This is when Ukraine launched a retaliatory attack, which enabled it to capture many of the territories that Russia had captured weeks before.

The cost of living crisis caused in large part by Russia's energy war with Europe has left European buyers unable to afford Chinese goods.

China's refusal to condemn Russia's aggression in Ukraine led to poor relations between it and the West.

And it is the United States and the European Union that remain China's largest trading partners.

There has been no Chinese investment in Russia in the first six months of 2022 - analysts say Beijing is trying to gauge the situation and try to avoid the imposition of a second sanctions by the United States.

An expert on the issues of cooperation between Russia and China, Leonid Kovacic, agrees that the statement of "unlimited friendship" has not been seen in actual action.

Maybe initially China did not see the difficulty of the issue of war for the EU and how Europe would be involved in helping Ukraine, financially and militarily.

"This is why China is now trying to smooth things over, at least at the level of its statements," added Kovacic.

The war in Ukraine also influenced China's handling of Taiwan, which Beijing considers an independent province.

Concerns in the region have continued to rise in recent months, with China conducting one of its biggest air force exercises in the area surrounding Taiwan in December.

 Changing jobs ... and policies?

After being appointed late last year, Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang spoke with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on January 9. An official statement about the talks, which took place "at Moscow's request", says that "China-Russia relations are based on neutrality, non-conflict and non-aggression."

This statement is very different from February's "unlimited friendship" statement from Putin and Xi and even from the words about "two super powerful countries" they said in the September session.

Qin's appointment was followed by the dismissal of ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian, who had held the post for the past three years.

Some analysts say that being removed from a high position and being demoted is a normal thing, while others say that it is China's strategy for the changes it made to reduce tension with other countries.

Improving relations is important as China tries to restore business confidence by abandoning its controversial "zero covid" policy and abandoning empty rhetoric of "joint success" and social equality.

Pro-government political analysts say off the record that China is disillusioned with Russia and its regional politics.

One indication of this was Xi Jinping's indirect criticism of Vladimir Putin last November, when he issued a joint statement with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, saying "the use or threat of nuclear weapons is unacceptable

While China is not expected to direct its strong statements in condemning Russia's position, it is expected to be careful by carefully weighing the effects of Russia's failure to achieve its goals in Ukraine and refrain from causing international hostility.