Ruto's reasons for defeating Raila in the presidential election

Kenya's Deputy President William Ruto has been announced as the President-Elect of Kenya following a fierce competition between him and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

Mr Ruto has managed to win 50.49% of the vote, while his competitor and long-time opposition leader Mr Odinga, got 48.8% of the vote, according to the official results announced by the chairman of the National Electoral Commission (IEBC) - a result which Mr Odinga's side has opposed. Four of the seven commissioners of the IEBC commission have also disagreed with the results.

However, the Chairman of the election commission, Wafula Chebukati has said that he has declared Mr Ruto as the President-Elect "according to the constitution and the law".

A victory that many did not expect!

The victory of Mr. Ruto against the opponent Raila Odinga, was not expected by many Kenyans, especially due to differences with his boss, the outgoing president Uhuru Kenyatta, who decided to support Mr. Odinga - his former rival in the election on August 9, 2022.

Despite the fact that Odinga and Ruto do not come from the largest tribe in Kenya, the Kikuyu, some Kenyans believed that many Kikuyus might vote for Mr Odinga because he was supported by Mr Kenyatta, who is a Kikuyu and who was believed to have influence among his tribe. However, the results of the election seemed contrary to that.

But what exactly made Mr William Ruto win against Raila Odinga?

1. Early campaign

Mr William Ruto's strategy to start campaigning for the presidency about three years after his relationship with Uhuru broke down following the agreement between President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga seems to be one of the reasons that contributed greatly to his victory. When Mr. Odinga was collaborating with President Kenyatta to bid for the success of Uhuru Kenyatta's government, Ruto had already started the election campaign and made clear the government's defects that he associated with the new alliance of his boss and Raila Odinga known as "Handshake".

Mr William Ruto's early campaigns for the presidency in 2022 are believed to help him convince voters early on his policies.

He succeeded in exposing the evils of President Uhuru Kenyatta's government to the Kenyan public, it is obvious that a large part of the voters have shown that they agree with him.

2. Hustler narrative Vs Dynasty

In the election campaign, Mr Ruto called himself a "hustler", or a "seeker", while accusing his two opponents of being "dynasties" or people who want to continue the succession of the Kenyatta and Odinga families. Using that trump, Mr Ruto sent a message to Kenyans that "even an ordinary Kenyan can lead the country, leadership must not only come from a rich family", a message he had given many times in his campaign.

In the election campaign for the presidency, Mr Ruto used a cart as a model for the seekers he will help to improve their lives, if he is elected president

He attracted young people, especially young people from low-income families, to believe that he might be able to understand problems, especially economic ones, and find solutions to them.

The word "hustlers" in Kenya means - especially young people - who are struggling to make a living in a difficult economic situation. Therefore, he attracted the sympathy of Kenyans by praying, breaking into tears, and claiming that President Uhuru Kenyatta is threatening him.

3. Alliance with influential politicians

Mr Ruto's move to create a modern alliance (Kenya Kwanza Alliance) with famous politicians such as Moses Wetangula and Musalia Mudavadi is a method that has helped Mr Ruto to attract more voters from areas that were not his stronghold. These politicians who come from the western region of Kenya have been able to get him more votes than he and Uhuru Kenyatta got in the 2017 election.

On the other hand, Mr. Raila Odinga lost many votes, especially in the fortress of the political leader candidate of the Amani National Congress, Musalia Mudavadi, an area that was previously known as his stronghold in previous years' elections.

4. Votes from ethnic groups with a large number of voters

Undoubtedly, Mr Ruto will be remembered for being able to penetrate the community with a large number of Kikuyu voters and win more votes than his opponent Raila Odinga. It is not something expected by some Kenyans that Mr Ruto could beat President Uhuru Kenyatta with more votes from his tribe. Kenyatta personally comes from the Kikuyu tribe and so it was hoped that by campaigning for Raila Odinga in Mount Kenya he could help his comrade Odinga enter the White House, which was not possible.

In his United Democratic Alliance, Ruto included politicians from Mt Kenya communities and from the Kalenjin tribe who helped him gather votes from his areas and carry out his political agenda, especially the agenda of promoting the economy from the ground up.

Some analysts in Kenya say, Odinga and Kenyatta may have thought that they would get the votes of Mount Kenya easily due to the "influence" of Mr. Kenyatta in the area, and therefore did not conduct early campaigns like their rivals, which has proven to be the opposite.

Ruto already had a lot of influence from his Kalenjin tribe, which voted for him in large numbers, in the last election.

The issue of Mr Raila being supported by President Kenyatta has also been seen by his followers as a "curse" instead of a "blessing", due to what seems to be the anger of the residents of Mount Kenya, especially small businessmen who blame President Kenyatta for failing to raise their business, and making their lives difficult.

In his campaigns, Ruto also blamed Mr Kenyatta for failing to implement the four main agendas, which could help boost the economy, due to the "Handshake", with Raila Odinga.

5. Certainly God-fearing

In Kenya, it is estimated that 85% of the people are Christians, according to government estimates in 2019. Of course, Mr Ruto knew that he could not win the hearts of Christian voters without being seen as "God-fearing" and a constant prayer, who relies on God for everything . Starting from donating money for the construction of churches, helping the poor believers and mentioning the Name "God", from time to time, it is undoubtedly something that helped Mr Ruto to engage with Christian voters to feel that he is the right candidate for them.

His presence in churches and involvement with religious leaders made Mr Ruto appear as a humble person, despite accusations of corruption from his political enemies including Mr Raila Odinga.

When Ruto was running his campaigns in churches and making large donations of money there, Raila Odinga accused him of using the people's money he looted through corruption to give aid to churches, without evidence.

6. The breakdown of his marriage to Uhuru Kenyatta

The issue of the breakup of what was known as "marriage", (Union of Uhuru and Ruto) an issue that confused Kenyans who supported the Union and their Jubilee government especially from the Kikuyu and Kalenjin communities, while some blamed Mr Kenyatta for betraying Mr Ruto, who according to the agreement between them, Kenyatta would have supported Ruto in his desire to become president, but he did not do so.